Birmingham’s Mid-2012 population projections indicate less pressure for Sutton Coldfield green belt homes
Green belt Area D. East of Sutton Coldfield Bypass (A38)
16th September 2013
The internal net migration mid-2012 recorded a negative figure of -3,165, according to official figures by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The key increase to note is natural change (births and deaths). The good news is that higher birth rates mean larger families not necessarily more households, hence faster than expected population growth does not mean faster than expected household growth.
The negative internal migration number is net emigration of citizens moving out of Birmingham to the places like Worcestershire, Staffordshire and Warwickshire and most likely, commuting back into Birmingham for employment.
There was also indication that the Government’s immigration policy is starting to work, with fewer International citizens migrating to the city compared to the previous year. The amount of citizens leaving decreased in comparison to 2011.
According to Birmingham City Council’s web site “The 2008-based projections (published in 2010) forecast growth of around 150,000 between 2011 and 2031. Numbers of households were estimated to grow by 81,500 within the same period.”
“The current long-term population projection is 2010-based (published 2012) and shows an even greater growth in population, with the population estimated to increase by over 200,000 by 2031. We are still awaiting estimates for household growth based on the latest population projection from the Department for Communities and Local Government. (DCLG)”
“Short-term population projections based on the 2011 Census suggest that the rate of growth will be lower than the 2010-based projection estimate. The 2011-based estimate shows growth of 85,800 to 2021. This compares with 108,700 according to the 2010-base and 75,900 according to the 2008-based projection.”
“The 2011 interim short-term Census-based population projections to 2021 for local authorities were published in September 2012. According to the projections, Birmingham’s population is projected to grow by 85,800, from 1,074,300 in 2011 to 1,160,100 in 2021, an increase of 8.0%. This compares with an estimated rate of 9.1% for the previous decade.”
However, recent population trends do not constitute “compelling evidence” to revise housing numbers downwards i.e. Birmingham Council’s evidence for the planning inspector, derived from the 2008-based projection will be the basis for allocating housing land. The ONS/DCLG next update of long term (25-year) population/household projections is expected in 2014/15, which is too late to influence the December 2013 Council meeting. This meeting is expected to sign off the draft Local Plan for public consultation.
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